Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov gave a large-scale news conference in Tiraspol on 15 June similar to those he used to organise on the occasion of the self-proclamation of the separatist republic.

Yet, within the concerned news conference, Smirnov told exactly what the others wanted to hear from him.

On the outset, he denied rumours regarding his dismissal in September 2007. We should recall at this point that in early June, the local and Russian press wrote that the irreplaceable Tiraspol leader would table his resignation next autumn and that snap elections would be organised in the region next December.

Next, Smirnov threatened Chisinau to take a string of „retaliation measures” against it starting 1 July, when the Moldovan governmental decision compelling Transnistrian economic agents into declaring imports to Chisinau enters into force. Although, earlier, the Chisinau authorities have repeatedly explained that the concerned document covers only row material and material imported to produce goods meant for export (which is in line with the international norms), Smirnov  has again used syntagms such as “blockade”, “economic pressures” and even “robbery of the Transnistrian people”.

Local analysts are saying that the two statements are meant not only for „the external enemies of the republic” but also for Smirnov’s internal challengers, and mainly the party holding the parliamentary majority in the region, Obnovlenye, which is propped up by the Sheriff corporation.

In case the Transnistrian authorities are to take the actions promised by Smirnov, this will promptly worsen the situation. The local economic agents and, first and foremost, the economic giant Sheriff will be the first to suffer from. At the same time, there is little probability that the Sheriff-financed Obnovlenye party will assume the risk of opposing to Smirnov and of formulating an alternative political course. Since its entering parliament, this formation has not dared to speak against the current Tiraspol leader, accepting absolutely all the rules of the game imposed by Smirnov.

Now, they have lost the moment again. In times of political hysteria Smirnov feels in his element. Presenting the new rules of import of row material as another „scarecrow”, the official media outlets is making use of the patriotic rhetoric, calling on Transnistrians “to strengthen around their president in order to cope with the new external danger”.

If Smirnov manages to blow up the situation on Dniestre, this will be the price the Transnistrian MPs and their tutors will have to pay for their political impotence.

As to the Tiraspol leader, he has no time to think of the fate of the Transnistrian business. He has much bigger problems to solve. Lately, the press has spread information that in late June, Russia is going to unveil a new Transnistrian conflict settlement plan. Since the settlement of the conflict mismatches Smirnov’s plans, he will keep on worsening the situation in order to unleash a large-scale clash between Chisinau and Tiraspol in order to postpone again the settlement of the issue.

Yet, there is little probability that such a development of events meets Russia’s interests as well as those of participants in the 5+2 negotiations. That is why, all of them jointly and separately should have their say. The day when this say is pronounced will become the moment of truth for the situation on Dniestre.