UN organisation says world increase in agricultural output to maintain low prices for food in next decade

Chisinau, 09 July /MOLDPRES/ – The global demand for agricultural products is to increase by 15 per cent in upcoming decade, while agricultural productivity will grow slightly faster. As a result, the agricultural commodity prices will remain at or below current levels, according to an annual report of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

The report provides an assessment of prospects for agricultural and fish commodity markets for next 10 years at national, regional and global levels.

Globally, it is estimated that the use of cereals in diet will increase by about 150 million tonnes in the next 10 years, mainly due to rice and wheat. The most important factor behind projected increase in current food use is population growth, which is expected to grow fastest in Sub – Saharan Africa and South Asia.

"Unfortunately, it is expected that the most needy regions will experience a slow increase in incomes and therefore only minor improvements in their nutritional status," warned Assistant of FAO Director General for Economic and Social Development, Máximo Torero.

The report forecasts show that improved production and higher yields, driven by technological innovation, will generate higher results, even if use of global agricultural land will generally remain constant. There are expected direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture to grow by about 0.5 per cent yearly over the next decade, below 0.7 per cent in recent 10 years and below expected production growth – indicating a fall in carbon intensity.

The report finds that consumption levels of sugar and vegetable oil will increase, reflecting the continuing trend towards prepared and processed food, especially in many low – income and middle – income states with a high degree of urbanisation. Concerns about healthcare and well – being, meanwhile, are expected to force many states with higher incomes to red meat consumption and switching from vegetable oils to butter.

Also, besides usual risks faced by agriculture, there arise new uncertainties. According to report, these include commercial tensions, spread of diseases on crops and animals, increased resistance to antimicrobial substances, regulations for new plant breeding techniques and increasingly extreme climatic phenomena. The uncertainties also include changing nutrition preferences in the context of healthcare and sustainability issues and policy responses to global alarming obesity trends.