Economic growth slows down in Europe, Central Asia, including Moldova

Chisinau, 10 October /MOLDPRES/ - The economic growth is slowing down in Europe and Central Asia and the regional growth is estimated at 1.8 per cent for 2019, according to the newest World Bank’s economic forecast for Europe and Central Asia. This estimation, the most pessimistic one of the last years, shows the slowing down of growth both in Russia and Turkey – the largest economies of the region. The report also shows a robust growth in Moldova.      

According to the report, the World Bank estimates a 3.4-per cent growth of the Moldovan economy in 2019 and a return to a 3.6-per cent increase in 2020 and 3.8 per cent in 2021. The international financial institution maintained its earlier launched forecasts, which are, however, under the level of economic growth of 4-4.7 per cent, recorded in the last three years.

„The quicker increase of the credit, the real increase in the salary and strong performances in the export will support the growth in 2019. On the other hand, the cut in remittances, a higher inflation and the dissipation of the effects of the fiscal stimuli introduced before the elections will decelerate the growth in 2019 to 3.4 per cent,” World Bank’s experts said. The reduction of the domestic demand, despite an extension of activities in free economic zones, will also contribute to a slowing down of the growth, maintaining the current account deficit under the historical values.  

The report also shows that the poverty will continue to decrease, as a result of the improvement of the economic conditions and of the labour market, including the continuous increase of the incomes available. 

The increase of the productivity is the key solution for Moldova to reach a sustainable growth, for new jobs to be created and for poverty to be further reduced.

Moldova registered a gross economic growth of 5.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2019 against the same period of the year before; this is above the expectations of analysts and officials, who relied on a growth of 3.4-4.4 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Official statistics shows that, in the first quarter, decision-makers recorded a 5.2-per cent growth; as a result, the GDP increased to 90.9 billion lei.   

The Economics Ministry forecasts a 3.7-per cent growth in 2019. The Expert-Grup Independent Analytical Centre shows optimism as to the evolution of the Moldovan economy. According to Expert-Grup, in 2019, Moldova’s GDP will grow by 4.4-4.5 per cent, basically due to the industry and commerce.  

The World Bank increased the estimations for Ukraine’s economy by 0.7 percentage points, up to 3.4 per cent in 2019, an increase of the Romanian economy by 0.6 percentage points, up to 4.2 per cent and a one-percentage points cut of Russia’s economy, to one percent of growth.