Moldova slides into area of incertitude after premier's resignation

Chisinau, 12 June /MOLDPRES/ - Economic commentary by MOLDPRES State News Agency.

Moldova is sliding into a zone of incertitude after the resignation of prime minister, that will lead to the fall of the government. This is the most inappropriate moment for such a categorical approach. And it is not about the fact that the resignation was tendered only a few days before the local general elections.

The political context, and especially the economic one, domestic and external, is extremely complicated to afford us to change the government. This is the moment when quick reaction to situation changes and more and more serious problems counted most of all.

The economy is in crisis. Just today, the National Statistics Bureau made public data on foreign trade, which shows a decrease by 17 per cent in exports and by 21.4 per cent of imports. Moldovans who work abroad send less and less money. In past April, the transfers dropped by 36 per cent against the same period of 2014. Remittances decrease and consumption also drops, and the living standards of families who receive this money worsens too.

The situation of the banking system does not improve, on the contrary, it seems that it even gets worse. Just one day before the prime minister’s resignation, the National Bank of Moldova (BNM) set a three-month special supervision at the biggest banks, Moldova Agroindbank, Victoriabank and Moldindconbank. The reason is not a dramatic one, BNM wants to get, by establishing this supervision, in fact a usual one for the work of a central bank, more detailed information compared to standard procedures. Another three banks, in a more difficult situation, are under BNM's special administration. Light should be cast also on the embezzlement from the banks.

The impulsive decision of the prime minister slapdash things related to the implementation of the Association Agreement with the European Union and, respectively, foreign financing. An example would be the Justice Ministry and its agenda. More projects, which are included in the strategy on justice reform, were to be promoted till late June – early July. This was the last chance to fit into the action plan. As a result, the EU financing for justice will be delayed, moreover, and Moldova runs the risk of losing it. And this is not the single example of this kind.

The implementation of the Association Agreement with EU and, respectively, the Free Trade Agreement will be „conserved” till the new government is sworn in office, instead of being sped up, as EU officials demand.

The prime minister announced his dismissal on the eve of a visit by the International Monetary Fund. There was a hope that talks on a new agreement will be started, on which depends financing from other foreign donors and creditors, but the discussions on new programme will be postponed till the formation of a new government at the earliest.

And given that negotiations usually last for a while, the agreement might be signed, in the best case, next autumn, and the financial situation is very difficult. Moldova may face a default, if it fails to sign the financing agreement with the International Monetary Fund, more experts say. The lack of a programme might jeopardise the getting of the foreign budgetary support, the amount of which, according to the state budget draft, is of 2.238,1 billion lei. Moldova needs not so much the IMF money, as as unlocking of financing for budgetary support.

The government’s resignation is also threatening, in conditions when tensions in the region continue and people willing to destabilize the situation stir up spirits.

And the ministers say that they were surprised by the announcement of resignation, made by Prime Minister Chiril Gaburici today. They say that they regret the gesture of the prime minister and describe as inappropriate the moment when it was made, whereas the others say that this resignation is „too risky for Moldova, we talk about the fall of the government and destruction of the parliamentary majority."

President Nicolae Timofti informed that he would start consultations with parliamentary parties right after the letter of resignation by the Gaburici government is submitted to the parliament. Under the Constitution, after consulting the parliamentary factions, the head of state is to nominate a new candidate for the office of prime minister. The new majority will have 45 days at its disposal to set a new government. At the same time, any dragging might complicate the situation even more. It is not by accident that representatives of the ruling coalition said that the talks must be started immediately.

(Reporter: V. Bercu   Editor: F.Galaico)