National Bank of Moldova: annual average inflation rate trended upward in third quarter of 2026, driven by external factors

The annual average inflation rate stood at 7.30 per cent in the third quarter of 2026, 0.62 percentage points higher than in the previous quarter, driven by external factors. The data were included in the fourth Inflation Report, published by the National Bank of Moldova (BNM) today.

According to the BNM, inflation did not evolve uniformly throughout the third quarter. Thus, in last July, the annual inflation rate decreased compared with the month before and stood at 6.34 per cent; however, starting from August, this year, it exceeded the upper limit of the variation range of ±1.5 percentage points around the medium-term inflation target of 5.0 per cent.

The BNM's analysis shows that the upward trend in the third quarter was caused by the evolution of fuel and regulated prices, amid volatility in international oil and natural gas prices, as well as the secondary effects of tariff adjustments for energy resources. In contrast, food prices followed a downward trajectory, while core inflation remained relatively stable.

“The external environment remains characterized by a high level of uncertainty and persistent inflationary risks. Although the economic growth outlook for the euro area has been revised slightly upward, supported by resilient domestic demand and improving confidence indicators, the industrial sector has continued to record negative annual growth and stays vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, the fragmentation of trade relations and volatility in commodity markets,” the BNM said.

In continuation, the BNM estimates that, overall, the balance of risks associated with the external environment remains tilted toward inflation.

“The possible escalation of geopolitical conflicts, constraints on global energy supply, appreciation of the US dollar and intensification of extreme weather events could amplify international prices’ volatility, posing significant challenges to maintaining prices’ stability in the period ahead,” the central bank concluded.