BNM: Inflation to gradually return to targeted limits

Inflation will reverse direction and enter a downward trajectory starting in the second quarter of 2025, returning to the targeted range of 5% ±1.5 p.p. by the end of the year. The data is contained in Inflation Report No. 2, published by the National Bank of Moldova (BNM) today.

According to the report, in the first quarter of 2025, the annual inflation rate continued its upward trajectory, increasing from 7 percent in December 2024 to 8.8 percent in March 2025. This was driven by the dynamics of regulated prices, in the context of adjusting the network gas tariff, thermal energy and electricity - BNM data said.

At the same time, beginning with the second quarter of 2025, the annual inflation rate will reverse and outline a downward trend. Thus, during the first two consecutive forecast quarters, the annual inflation rate will be above the upper limit of the variation range and will return within the range starting from the fourth quarter of 2025, where it will remain until the end of the forecast period.


"BNM data confirms that our measures are yielding results. Inflation is moderating, and monetary policy remains well-calibrated to ensure and maintain price stability," BNM Governor Anca Dragu said.


According to forecasts, both general and core inflation will continue to decline throughout the analyzed period, due to moderate domestic demand and the dissipation of temporary shocks.