Inflation enters downward trend

Chișinău, 21 September /MOLDPRES/- The annual inflation rate in the Republic of Moldova is on a downward trend and could return to the National Bank's target corridor, below 6.5%, by the end of this year, said Governor of BNM Anca Dragu told an interview for AGERPRES.


“We are in a disinflation process and expect the inflation rate to enter the target corridor by the end of the year. Additionally, we estimate that inflation will remain within the established limits for 2026, enabling a balanced economic growth model,” Dragu said.


According to her, the beginning of 2025 brought a new inflation shock, generated by reforms in the energy sector and the evolution of energy prices, but the situation has subsequently stabilized.


“We experienced an increase in inflation in the first part of the year, but inflation has now entered a downward trend,” said the BNM governor.


At the same time, the central bank has adopted measures to relax monetary policy. The policy rate has been reduced twice this year, currently standing at 6%.

Regarding lending, Dragu mentioned that financing in the economy has significantly increased.


“We have seen a 3-4 percentage point increase in credit relative to GDP in the last year and a half, from 23-24% to 27%. We are still below the European average, but with an appropriate policy mix, we can ensure both access to finance and maintain financial stability,” the official explained.


The BNM governor also emphasized that the Moldovan banking sector is robust, well-capitalized, and dominated by shareholders from the European Union. Furthermore, a positive element is the growth of savings and lending in the national currency.


“The citizens of the Republic of Moldova have confidence in the Moldovan leu, and this is a source of pride for the National Bank,” Dragu declared.


In 2024, inflation in the Republic of Moldova showed an upward trend, reaching a peak of 9.1% in January 2025, compared to 7% in December 2024. This increase was influenced by significant rises in energy and food prices.

Following the developments, the National Bank of Moldova adjusted its inflation forecast, estimating an average annual rate of 7.3% for 2025 and 4.7% for 2026. The revision was determined by the impact of energy and food prices on the economy.

In August 2025, the annual inflation was 7.32%, down from previous highs, indicating a trend of price stabilization. The development suggests the effects of the monetary policy measures implemented by the BNM.

Overall, inflation in the Republic of Moldova has been influenced by external and internal factors, and BNM's measures have had a positive impact on stabilizing prices.