World Bank forecasts acceleration of Moldova's economic growth in medium term

The World Bank forecasts an acceleration of Moldova's economic growth in the medium term, against the backdrop of planned reforms by the authorities, which are expected to become the main factor contributing to increased productivity and investments. The forecasts are contained in the World Bank's report on the economic outlook of our country, presented today in Chisinau.

World Bank Country Manager for Moldova Ulrich Schmitt said that following the parliamentary elections, the country has laid the groundwork for stability and reform continuity, which leads to optimistic economic growth forecasts. The official noted the existence of available resources to drive reforms and Moldova's development in the coming years.


“From the World Bank Group's perspective, we are pleased to have a period of continuity following the elections, and we look forward to working with the new government based on the reform agenda established for the upcoming period. Moldova is in a good situation. There is now a policy alignment offered by the EU accession agenda, collaboration with partners based on this agenda and through the EU's growth mechanism, as well as through multilateral development institutions. There are thus many resources available to propel reforms and Moldova's development in the coming years,” stated Ulrich Schmitt.


World Bank representatives also emphasized that the EU's Reform and Economic Growth Mechanism for Moldova, with a €1.9 billion funding, is a strategic opportunity for the country's development.

Marcel Chistruga, World Bank country economist said that estimates show that by 2025, Moldova is expected to achieve economic growth of 1.5 percent, with an anticipated acceleration of medium-term growth.


“In the medium term, we see an acceleration of economic growth, and we believe that one of the structural factors contributing to this growth will come from productivity. We believe that the planned reforms by the authorities should contribute to an increase in productivity and, consequently, to higher growth rates in the medium term,” said Chistruga.


According to World Bank forecasts, private consumption and investments will remain the main growth drivers. At the same time, the influence of investments on domestic demand will be much greater. “This factor is, of course, conditioned by the absorption of EU funds. On the other hand, another factor is related to net exports. In our view, net exports should have a more positive contribution to growth in the medium term. This will be due to the gradual alignment of Moldova's economy with the European Union. Increased productivity will also positively contribute to export growth,” emphasized Chistruga.

Experts also estimate that inflation will continue its downward trend. “As supply-side pressure eases, we estimate an average annual inflation of 7.8% in 2025. Against the backdrop of moderating prices of imported goods and an economy increasingly aided by net exports, we anticipate that inflation will return to the target range of the NBM, at the beginning of 2026, and fluctuate within the lower limit of this range in the medium term,” said Chistruga.

In addition, specialists note that inflationary pressures persist, mainly driven by prices of energy resources and food products. “The restrictive monetary policy from the first half of the year has been relaxed. This signals a transition to a more favorable monetary policy, but for the moment it remains quite cautious. Besides aiming to maintain economic growth amid lower inflation, there are also inflationary pressures that the National Bank keeps in sight,” added the expert.

Moldova has been a member of the World Bank since 1992. According to World Bank data, since 1992, the financial institution has allocated over $2.1 billion for more than 70 operations in Moldova, covering areas such as regulatory reform and business development, government service modernization, tax administration, land registry, education, roads, health, agriculture, water, sanitation and energy.