NBM: annual inflation rate to follow upward trend until end of year, then decline

The annual inflation rate will continue an upward trajectory until the end of this year, reaching a peak in the fourth quarter of 2026. Afterwards, inflation will move onto a downward path, hitting a low of 3.5 percent at the beginning of 2028. For the entire year 2026, average inflation is estimated at 7.2 percent, and for 2027 it is forecast at 6.2 percent. The data are included in Inflation Report No. 3, presented today by the National Bank of Moldova (NBM).

According to the Report, in the second quarter of 2026 the annual inflation rate increased to 6.68 percent, from 5.24 percent in the previous quarter, exceeding the upper limit of the ±1.5 percentage point variation band around the 5.0 percent target. However, recent data show a slight easing in July 2026, when the annual inflation rate fell to 6.34 percent.

The NBM emphasized that the upward dynamics of inflation in the second quarter were driven by fuel prices and regulated prices, against the backdrop of volatile international quotations for oil and natural gas, as well as the secondary effects of adjustments to energy tariffs. By contrast, food prices followed a downward trajectory, and core inflation remained relatively stable at 5.16 percent.

Among the main risk factors identified in the current forecast are international geopolitical tensions, the evolution of energy resource prices in Europe, weather conditions that may affect local agricultural output, as well as uncertainties regarding the timing and magnitude of tariff adjustments for regulated services.

“We are closely monitoring developments in both the external and domestic environment, marked by geopolitical uncertainties and energy market volatility. Our monetary policy decisions are calibrated to mitigate the secondary effects of supply shocks, support sustainable lending, and create the necessary conditions for bringing inflation back close to the 5 percent target in the medium term, thereby protecting citizens’ purchasing power,” NBM Governor Anca Dragu said.

NBM data also show that GDP dynamics recorded an increase of 0.4 percent in the first quarter of 2026, supported by the industrial, trade, and transport sectors, while household consumption remained sustained by the wage bill and social security payments.