Average annual inflation rate decreases to 7.9 per cent in Moldova in second quarter of 2025

The annual inflation rate slowed down in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the beginning of this year. Thus, it decreased from 8.8 per cent in March 2025 to 8.2 per cent in last June. At the same time, the average annual inflation rate stood at 7.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, about 0.9 percentage points lower against the quarter before. The data is contained in the Inflation Report no. 3, 2025, published by the National Bank of Moldova (BNM) today.

“The report’s data confirms that the measures adopted by BNM are taking effect. Inflation is decreasing and monetary policy is calibrated, in order to ensure the maintenance of prices’ stability. Even in a difficult international context, BNM's direction remains firm: stability, confidence and European integration,” said Anca Dragu, Governor of the National Bank of Moldova.

In the current context, BNM estimates show that annual inflation will continue to decrease throughout 2025 and in the first half of the next year. It is anticipated to return to the inflation target range starting from the first quarter of 2026 and to stay  at these levels until the end of the period forecast. Nevertheless, risks remain high, fueled by geopolitical developments and potential adjustments to regulated tariffs,  BNM noted.

The report highlights that global economic developments have created a climate marked by uncertainties. The war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East and the emergence of a wave of trade wars have boosted geopolitical and economic risks. These conflicts have led to significant increases in oil prices and have prompted European countries to redirect their budgets towards defense and managing the consequences of trade sanctions.

The document also reveals that, in the first quarter of 2025, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded a decrease of 1.2 per cent compared to the same period of the previous year, primarily due to reduced net external demand. This reduction was partially compensated by domestic demand, according to BNM. As to the economic branches, construction, information technology and the financial sector showed positive developments, while agriculture and industry had a negative contribution to GDP’s dynamics.

Last week, BNM ruled to reduce the base rate applied to main short-term monetary policy operations to 6.25 per cent annually, compared to the previous 6.5 per cent level.