Governor of National Bank of Moldova says country's economy to continue to grow in 2026, inflation stays major challenge

The economy of Moldova might record growth of around 2 per cent in 2026, but inflationary pressures will stay high, especially due to rising energy and oil prices. Governor of the National Bank of Moldova (BNM), Anca Dragu has resented estimated to this effect, at a conference dedicated to the financial and banking sector.

Anca Dragu emphasized that Moldova was advancing in a broad process of financial modernization, supported by its integration into the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA), the continuous development of the MIA Instant Payments system, stronger supervision and alignment with European standards.

“Moldova is proving that financial stability, reforms and European integration are producing concrete results for citizens, companies and the economy. For the National Bank of Moldova, the priority remains strengthening a safe, modern financial sector, connected to the European architecture, by aligning with the standards, practices and legislation of the European Union. In this process, cooperation with institutions of Romania and regional professional dialogue play an important role in consolidating Moldova’s position in the European financial area,” Dragu underlined.

According to the BNM governor, the average inflation rate could reach about 8.1 per cent next year, almost double the initial forecast made before the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the new increases in energy prices.

Anca Dragu explained that, after the gradual reduction of the monetary policy rate to 5 per cent in the summer of 2025, new external shocks led to an acceleration of inflation in March and April. Under these conditions, the National Bank was forced to intervene and raise the key interest rate to 6.5 per cent.

“The onset of the new shock in energy and oil prices finds us within the inflation-targeting corridor, with a monetary policy rate of 5 per cent. Unfortunately, in March and April we see inflation accelerating due to this external pressure—factors over which we have little control—so that inflation in April reaches 6.7 per cent, which also leads to an increase in the monetary policy rate. At present, after the latest monetary policy decision, this key rate in the economy stands at 6.5 per cent. The most recent estimates show that the average inflation rate for 2026 could be slightly above 8 per cent, namely 8.1 per cent, a significant increase compared to the initial forecast made before the conflict in Iran, of approximately 4.7 per cent,” said Anca Dragu.

Despite these difficulties, the BNM governor says that 2025 was a favorable year for Moldova’s economy. According to the data presented, the economy grew by 2.4 per cent, while investments advanced by approximately 22 per cent.

Anca Dragu stressed that one of the biggest challenges for Moldova had been the energy crisis at the beginning of 2025, when the country radically changed its sources of electricity supply, turning toward the European market and Romania.

This transition was accompanied by sharp price hikes: electricity rose by 75 per cent, natural gas by 27 per cent, and district heating - by 40 per cent.

“In 2025, the electricity supply practically changes completely. From relying on supply from the Transnistrian region, we started to procure electricity from the European Union and from Romania. We experienced a significant shock to prices. In January 2025, we saw an increase in electricity prices of 75 per cent, in natural gas prices - of 27 per cent, and in district heating - of 40 per cent. Faced with these shocks, the National Bank of Moldova almost doubled the monetary policy rate and, of course, this was felt somewhat in the first quarter of 2025,” said Anca Dragu.

Governor of the National Bank of Moldova Anca Dragu took part in the conference, Finance & Banking & Leasing & Capital Market, held in Bucharest under the theme, The financial system – the engine of growth and stability.

The event, hosted by the National Bank of Romania as part of the Bucharest Leaders’ Summit: United for a Better World, brought together officials and representatives of the financial and banking sector, the capital market, academia, and the business community, for a dialogue on the role of the financial system in supporting economic growth and stability.

During the conference, the BNM governor delivered a speech as a special guest, addressing the role of financial stability, reforms and regional cooperation in strengthening economic resilience and in self-assertion Moldova as an active part of the European financial area.