Romanian political analyst: War in Ukraine amplified Moldova’s vulnerabilities but strengthened European choice

The war has amplified Moldova’s vulnerabilities, but at the same time it has accelerated processes of strategic clarification. The European direction is no longer just a political option but a security necessity, said Romanian political analyst Mihai Isac. 

Isac stressed that the official position of the Republic of Moldova has consistently been one of political solidarity with Ukraine and substantial humanitarian support. The war in Ukraine has deeply affected the Republic of Moldova, especially in terms of the security of the state and its citizens, trade, energy, and beyond. The Republic of Moldova has experienced repeated shocks in energy prices and high import costs, in a context where the economy is small and vulnerable.

The IMF notes that, after very weak performance in 2024, growth is gradually returning, but with major external imbalances. The current account deficit widened in 2025 to about 20% of GDP, driven by import demand, including for electricity, amid weak exports, while the outlook remains dominated by uncertainties related to the war and energy shocks.

On the social side, the impact has been of two types: direct pressure on the standard of living and pressure on public services. The Republic of Moldova has managed a long-term humanitarian effort.

In addition to the massive transit flow of over one million refugees from Ukraine, the country continues to host a significant number of Ukrainian refugees (official data indicate approximately 140,000 refugees from Ukraine in the Republic of Moldova as of December 2025).

The war has also caused security effects, visible in public anxiety and in additional costs for the state.

For example, in November 2025, Moldovan authorities lodged an official protest after Russian drones entered its airspace, including an incident in which a drone fell on the roof of a building. This reinforces the perception of a “war at the border” and obliges institutions to invest more in resilience. Politically and socially, the environment remains tense, with disinformation pressure and external interference, especially during election periods, which amplify polarization and mistrust. The official position of the Republic of Moldova has consistently been one of political solidarity with Ukraine and substantial humanitarian support, within the limits of internal resources and its status of neutrality.

Diplomatically, Chișinău has reaffirmed at the UN its support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders and has condemned the war launched by the Russian Federation. At the bilateral level, joint presidential declarations have underlined Moldova’s solidarity with Ukraine and its commitment to continue practical and humanitarian assistance. Beyond declarations, the crucial aspect is protecting people.

The government of Chișinău recently extended temporary protection for people displaced from Ukraine until 1 March 2027, explicitly invoking solidarity and the need for stability for people, including access to education, healthcare, and work.

The Republic of Moldova has treated the tragedy of Ukrainians not as a short crisis but as a long-term reality that requires public policies, not just emergency reactions. At the same time, the Republic of Moldova has tried to remain consistent with its constitutional neutrality, avoiding moves that would turn the country into a theater of direct confrontation, while cooperating with European partners in the areas of humanitarian aid and resilience. For example, the EU has announced humanitarian funding that includes the Republic of Moldova, precisely to support the response to the effects of the war in the region. The strategic orientation has also been visible in broader political decisions, such as concrete steps to withdraw from structures dominated by Russia, like the CIS, a signal that Chișinău is anchoring its future in the European space.

On Tuesday, 24 February, four years passed since the military invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation. The effects of the war are being felt worldwide, with a major impact on the states in the region, with all eyes on peace talks whose results are still awaited.

Civil society in the Republic of Moldova is calling for a just peace for Ukraine, so that life and dignity are protected, and those who committed war crimes are held accountable. The Institute for European Policies and Reforms (IPRE) has launched a Declaration in support of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.

In Chișinău, a solidarity march with Ukraine was organized to mark four years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.