Annual inflation rate to decrease in first quarter of 2026, forecasts BNM
The annual inflation rate will register a decline in the first quarter of 2026, after which it will remain relatively stable by late 2026 and at the beginning of next year it will record a slight decrease. The forecast was presented by the National Bank of Moldova (BNM).
According to the BNM, average annual inflation for 2026 and 2027 will be 5.0 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, being revised up by 0.7 percentage points for 2026 and down for 2027 by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous forecast.
BNM data also show that annual inflation stood at 6.84 percent in December 2025, down by 0.15 percentage points from the previous month’s level and positioned slightly above the upper limit of the ±1.5 percentage point variation band around the 5.0 percent target.
At the same time, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the average annual inflation rate was 6.94 percent, slightly above the anticipated level, due to the positive deviation recorded for administered prices following the increase in electricity tariffs in December 2025 in the context of the end of the compensation period for household tariffs.
The Inflation Report, February 2026, which contains an analysis of the domestic and external economic situation as well as the medium‑term inflation forecast, will be published on 14 February 2026.
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