National Bank of Moldova: annual inflation rate to follow upward trend in 2026, afterwards to decline

The annual inflation rate will follow an upward trend in 2026 and will subsequently move onto a downward trajectory. The peak value will be recorded at the end of this year, while the minimum value will be reached at the end of 2027 and the beginning of 2028. The data are included in the Inflation Report No. 2, 2026, published by the National Bank of Moldova (BNM) today.

According to the BNM, the increase in inflation is occurring against the backdrop of pressures caused by the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East, pressures that have led to higher prices for energy, food products and raw material worldwide.

To mitigate inflationary pressures amid escalating geopolitical conflicts and global trade tensions, the BNM Executive Board ruled, with unanimous vote, to set the interest rate applied to the main monetary policy operations at 6.50 percent annually.

“We are focusing our efforts on easing the effects of the energy crisis and ensuring prices’ stability, in an international context marked by uncertainty and major shocks. We are managing these challenges with utmost responsibility and with careful calibration between supporting economic activity and maintaining financial stability, with the aim of ensuring an economic environment favorable to investment,” emphasized BNM Governor Anca Dragu, in the context of the publication of the new Inflation Report.

According to the document, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the economy of  Moldova registered an increase of 3.6 percent compared to the same period of 2024, although the pace slowed compared to the previous quarter. Growth was supported mainly by domestic demand both from the population, amid higher real incomes, and from businesses, which boosted their activity. Such sectors as agriculture, forestry and fishing, as well as industry—especially the information and communications sector—contributed significantly to this positive result.

Statistics data shows that, at the beginning of 2026, the annual inflation rate recorded a pronounced decrease, down to 4.85 percent in January, following the disappearance of the effects generated by the adjustment of energy tariffs in January 2025. In February 2026, inflation remained close to the target, and towards the end of the first quarter it displayed an upward trend, against the background of rising oil and natural gas prices, caused by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, reaching 5.81 percent in March 2026 and 6.8 percent in April.