Expert: Chisinau’s decision regarding Krasnoselski could thwart scenario prepared in Moscow

The decision by the authorities in Chisinau to allow Vadim Krasnoselski to return to Tiraspol while imposing a five-year ban on leaving the Republic of Moldova could thwart a political scenario pursued by Moscow. The opinion belongs to political analyst Vitalie Andrievschi, who believes that the decoration of the de facto leader of the Transnistrian region by Russian President Vladimir Putin may have been part of a special political operation intended to provoke a harsh reaction from Chisinau.

According to the analyst, the award ceremony and the statements made on that occasion had a demonstrative character. On November 4, Vladimir Putin presented Vadim Krasnoselski with the Order of Honour of the Russian Federation, referring to him as the president of the so-called Transnistrian Moldovan Republic. Kremlin leader praised him for developing the region despite external pressure, preserving the Russian language and defending historical truth.

For his part, Krasnoselski spoke about Transnistria’s belonging to the Russian world, presenting Tiraspol as an outpost of Russia. He also referred to the Russian troops in the peacekeeping contingent, calling them continuers of the mission of Suvorov’s soldiers, and spoke about the region’s legislation and education system becoming increasingly aligned with those of the Russian Federation.


“Moldovan territory. Russian outpost. Russian standards. But where is Moldova in this picture?” the analyst asks.


Vitalie Andrievschi believes that Moscow may have been seeking precisely a harsh reaction from Chisinau, such as banning Krasnoselski from returning to the Republic of Moldova. Such a decision could subsequently have been used by Russia to accuse the Moldovan authorities of sabotaging the negotiation process and obstructing the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict.


“The subsequent scenario could have unfolded as follows. Moscow accuses Chisinau of sabotaging the negotiation process. It invokes the threat of resolving the Transnistrian issue by force. It brings back to the forefront the argument about the need to protect the region’s residents. This could then be followed by threats to recognize Transnistria’s independence and discussions about a new referendum on joining Russia. This is one version of a possible scenario, not information about a plan adopted in the Kremlin. But the political logic is apparent: provoking Moldova into taking a step that could later be used against it,” the expert explained.


In this context, the analyst believes that Chisinau’s decision to allow Krasnoselski to return to Tiraspol while imposing a five-year restriction on leaving the country represents an approach different from the one Moscow may have been pursuing.

According to him, this deprives the Tiraspol leader of the opportunity to present himself as an exile whom the Moldovan authorities are preventing from returning home. Instead, he is placed in a position where he must choose whether to return to the region he leads or remain in Moscow and explain to the residents of Transnistria why he is not returning.


“Krasnoselski is deprived of the convenient role of an exile whom Moldova supposedly does not allow to return home. Now he will have to choose for himself: remain in Moscow and explain this to the residents of Transnistria, or return to Tiraspol, knowing about the announced five-year ban on leaving the country,” the analyst said.


Vitalie Andrievschi also states that, if he returns to Tiraspol, Krasnoselski will have to take responsibility for the results of his own governance and confront the realities in the region even after the end of his current term, when he will no longer hold power or benefit from the protection associated with the office.

On November 5, the Reintegration Bureau announced that, upon returning from Moscow, Vadim Krasnoselski would be subject to restrictive measures, including a five-year ban on leaving the territory of the Republic of Moldova. Prime Minister Vasile Tofan stated that Krasnoselski could return to Tiraspol but would have to comply with this restriction.