Moldovan Economy Ministry estimates 2.2-per cent growth of GDP in 2026, followed by gradual medium‑term acceleration

The Economic Development and Digitalization Ministry (MDED) estimates a 2.2-per cent growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026, followed by a gradual medium-term acceleration to 4.2 per cent in 2029. This trajectory will be supported by the implementation of structural reforms and investment projects envisaged in the EU-backed Growth Plan.

According to MDED, the outlook for 2026 is marked by a high degree of uncertainty, mainly in the context of the conflict in the Middle East, which has led to increases in oil and natural gas prices. These developments boost inflationary pressures at global and regional levels, affecting production costs and macroeconomic balances.

“We certainly did the calculations together with our external partners, the World Bank, the IMF, the European Union. If the war continues, we can expect a forecast of 2.2% for 2026. But we will see. The uncertainty is so high, that we cannot say anything for the moment. So, 2.4 per cent, 2.2 per cent. These are the joint forecasts agreed with our partners,” said Deputy Prime Minister, Economic development and Digitalization Minister Eugeniu Osmochescu after the today’s government meeting.

At the same time, the forecast scenario is underpinned by a string of favorable factors that will support economic activity on the coming period. The implementation of investment projects included in the Growth Plan (projects to modernize the energy sector, rehabilitate and expand road infrastructure, modernize railway infrastructure, investments in water supply and sewerage systems, etc.), as well as measures to stimulate private investment—including through state aid mechanisms in strategic sectors of the processing industry and financing programmes implemented via the Organization for Entrepreneurship Development (ODA)—will support domestic demand, MDED notes.

Also, according to the same source, structural reforms and support measures for the business environment will help mitigate the impact of external shocks and strengthen economic resilience.

Alongside these friendly factors, certain vulnerabilities persist, particularly the ones associated with developments in the region and the Middle East and their possible effects on the national economy, the source added.

In the context, the Economic Development and Digitalization Ministry will continue to monitor domestic and external economic developments and adjust, where necessary, the forecasting framework, in order to ensure a sound basis for economic policies.

According to data from the National Statistics Bureau, Moldova’s economy grew by 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. For the entire 2025 year, the Gross Domestic Product increased by 2.4 per cent.