War in Iran shakes energy markets: Will Moldovans pay more for gas and fuel?

The armed conflict in Iran has a direct impact on international energy markets, influencing prices for oil and natural gas. Experts say that tariff developments largely depend on the duration of the war and the resumption of transport through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route for global energy deliveries.

According to estimates, about 20 per cent of global oil supplies and around 22 per cent of natural gas supplies transit the Persian Gulf, especially the Strait of Hormuz. The temporary blockade of ship traffic in the area has created a short-term shortage and led to rising quotations on international exchanges.

Asked by MOLDPRES, energy expert Sergiu Tofilat says that the link between the conflict and energy resources’ prices is a direct one.

“If the war ends quickly, we can avoid prices’ increases. The gas tariff does not take into account the effect of one day, two days or a week, but is based on average annual prices. However, if the conflict lasts for more months, we can expect increases,” Tofilat said.





As for fuel, the impact could be felt more quickly.

“For fuel, price increases will be seen immediately, while for gas the effects appear gradually. Everything depends on how quickly traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is resumed and on the stabilization of the situation in the region,” the expert noted.

For his part, Romanian expert Cosmin Pacuraru believes that, for now, there are no clear reasons for raising natural gas tariffs in Moldova. He explains that oil and gas prices are influenced by the “emotional” reactions of exchanges in a geopolitical context.

“Yesterday, the price of oil was 78 dollars per barrel, while the historical maximum was 138 dollars. We are not talking about a dramatic situation,” Pacuraru said, contacted by MOLDPRES.

The expert points out that Moldova is supplied mainly from Romania, and Romanian storage facilities still hold gas stocks estimated at 25–30 per cent. In addition, the company Energocom is said to have already made the necessary purchases for the upcoming period.

“There should be no major problems with gas prices, at least in the short term,” he noted.





Specialists believe that, if hostilities end quickly, prices could return to pre-conflict levels. By contrast, a prolonged escalation could keep quotations high as long as uncertainty persists on international markets.

For now, experts consider that no precise estimates can be made regarding possible price increases, but the evolution of the conflict in Iran stays the decisive factor for the stability of energy resources’ prices in the region.