DOC // SIS and AIM report debunks myths about real amount of ammunition in Cobasna

Cobasna ammunition depot is estimated to hold about 14,000 gross tons of armament (including packaging and crates), while the net quantity of explosive substance is only 2,800 tons, a volume much smaller than previously circulated. The figures were presented today by the Intelligence and Security Service (SIS) and the Military Intelligence Agency (AIM) and were included in the report “Cobasna: Separating a Myth from Reality,” made public by the two institutions. The report emphasizes that the Cobasna depot is a risk, but a limited and controlled one, and does not represent “an existential threat to the region, as it has been repeatedly presented for geopolitical purposes”.

The document focuses on the technical and security assessment of the Cobasna ammunition depot, including data on ammunition stocks, the specific features of the storage infrastructure, identified risk scenarios, and recommended measures for managing them. The data presented dismantle previously circulated scenarios according to which the quantity of munitions stored in Cobasna is much larger, with risks for the entire region.

SIS Director Alexandru Musteața stated at a press conference that for more than two decades, the Cobasna ammunition depot has been turned in the public space into a subject of fear. In this context, the report made public today presents technical storage data, characteristics of the ammunition, engineering calculations, and characteristics of the terrain which, according to the SIS director, “debunk false narratives and describe the real consequences of a potential explosion.”

“The Cobasna depot has often been presented by some exponents of the separatist regime on the left bank of the Dniester, by persons from the leadership of the Russian Federation, as well as by certain domestic voices, as a potential catastrophe of regional proportions. This report presents technical storage data, ammunition characteristics, engineering calculations, and terrain particularities that dismantle these false narratives and describe the real consequences of a potential explosion. Our institutions decided to respond to these claims not with more statements, but with concrete data. We have assembled information from official OSCE Mission reports, satellite images, open sources, as well as from secret human sources and the analysis of communications and electronic signals. We compared the situation at Cobasna with similar incidents at ammunition depots in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation in recent years. We applied the United Nations methodology for estimating damage caused by explosions, the Human Safeguard tool, and we double-checked these calculations with independent engineering simulations carried out by explosive ordnance experts of the National Army,” explained Musteața.

AIM Director Radu Cîșleanu said that the data in the report show that, at present, the Cobasna complex still holds around 14,000 gross tons of ammunition, of which only approximately 2,800 tons represent the actual explosive load.

“We estimate that at present, the complex still holds around 14,000 gross tons of ammunition. It is essential, however, to distinguish between the gross mass of ammunition and the effective quantity of explosive material. Of the approximately 14,000 tons in existence, we estimate that only around 2,800 tons represent the actual explosive load. The rest of the stock consists of metal casings, packaging, inert components and training munitions without explosive charges. This difference is important. The total weight of a projectile or a missile includes numerous structural components. In the case of artillery shells, the explosive charge usually represents about 14–17% of the total mass. For aerial bombs, the proportion can reach about 30–40% of their weight,” said Radu Cîșleanu.

The Cobasna ammunition depot, created by Soviet authorities in the 1940s, is currently under de facto control of the Russian Federation, via the Operational Group of Russian Forces illegally stationed in the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova, explained the AIM director. At the 1999 OSCE Istanbul Summit, the Russian Federation committed to withdrawing its troops and munitions from the territory of the Republic of Moldova, but this commitment has not been fulfilled.

“The only progress concerned the partial evacuation and destruction of ammunition stocks. Between 2001 and 2004, under OSCE monitoring, approximately 22,000 tons of ammunition were evacuated or destroyed. Subsequently, the process was blocked by the Russian side. The last OSCE assessments and visits from that period indicated that in 2006 about 20,000 tons of ammunition were still stored at Cobasna. Our analysis shows that over roughly 20 years, part of these stocks has been consumed during training activities and exercises carried out by Russian troops and separatist force structures,” underlined Radu Cîșleanu.

A second key element included in the report concerns how the ammunition at Cobasna is stored.

Radu Cîșleanu explained that the stocks at Cobasna are not concentrated in a single structure. They are distributed across 42 distinct depots, spread over an area of more than 1 square kilometer, at distances of approximately 80–200 meters from each other.

According to the official, this dispersal, together with the compartmentalization of the infrastructure and the protection offered by the natural relief of the area, significantly reduces the likelihood of a simultaneous detonation of the entire depot.

Under these conditions, Radu Cîșleanu emphasized that “the risk associated with the Cobasna depot must be treated with utmost seriousness, but it must be assessed based on the real technical characteristics of the stocks and infrastructure, not through scenarios that assume the instantaneous and simultaneous detonation of the entire quantity of ammunition.”

“Therefore, the realistic scenario of a major incident at Cobasna is not that of a single explosion of regional proportions. More likely, it would be a phenomenon of successive detonations, fires and localized explosions, as the fire spreads to certain areas of the complex. Similar incidents in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Ukraine and the Russian Federation fully support this type of evolution. Our simulations indicate that the direct effects of the explosion of a single depot would be concentrated within a radius of approximately 2 km from the epicenter. This distance roughly corresponds to the distance between the technical area of the complex and the nearest locality. In other words, the risk associated with the Cobasna depot must be treated with utmost seriousness, but it must be assessed based on the real technical characteristics of the stocks and infrastructure, not through scenarios that assume the instantaneous and simultaneous detonation of the entire quantity of ammunition,” concluded Radu Cîșleanu.

During the press conference, the SIS director countered claims circulated in the public space according to which “an explosion at Cobasna could have the force of a nuclear bomb, comparable to Hiroshima.”

“This claim comes from a 2005 study, widely cited by Russian news agencies, which evoked an earthquake of about 7.5 on the Richter scale. Our report clearly shows why this comparison is false. It confuses the total mass of stored ammunition with the actual amount of active explosive. A bomb like the one dropped on Hiroshima is equivalent to 15,000 tons of TNT, about 1,500 times more powerful than the most powerful conventional munition present at Cobasna. For this scenario to be real, 1,500 conventional bombs of 10 tons each would have to detonate simultaneously in the same place. This is technically impossible at Cobasna, considering what is stored there and in what quantities,” said Alexandru Musteața.

He stressed that the report presented today clearly states that the Cobasna depot is a risk, but a limited and controlled one.

“It is not an existential threat to the region, as it has been repeatedly presented for geopolitical purposes. We are publishing this report in full, with all technical annexes, maps and simulations used. Precisely so that anyone—journalists, independent experts, international partners—can verify our conclusions for themselves,” the official pointed out.

He reiterated the message that “the Russian Federation must withdraw its troops from the Republic of Moldova immediately, unconditionally and peacefully, because their presence is not only illegal, but also unjustified.”

“Cobasna has, for more than 20 years, been an instrument of pressure used against the Republic of Moldova. Our response is not to ignore the risk, but to explain it correctly, with verifiable parameters. The Russian Federation must withdraw its troops immediately, unconditionally and peacefully from the Republic of Moldova, because their presence is not only illegal, but also unjustified,” concluded Alexandru Musteața.