Moldovan PM says government must have necessary tools before crises materialize

The parliament has approved the declaration of a state of emergency in the energy and water sectors for a period of 60 days, starting from September 26. Speaking at the plenary meeting of the parliament, Prime Minister Vasile Tofan said the measure was preventive and necessary, as Moldova enters the cold season facing more overlapping regional risks that could amplify one another.

“I am not saying that tomorrow we will run out of gas, diesel, electricity or water. On the contrary, over the past two months, we have managed to stabilize more difficult situations. The problem is that we are entering the cold season with more major risks overlapping at the same time. In practice, we are facing three crises that could coincide,” the PM said.

One of the risks is related to developments in the natural gas market, which has been affected by the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, damage to important transport routes and infrastructure and reduced liquefied natural gas export capacity. In the first half of September, gas prices on the European TTF market reached approximately 84 euros/MWh, equivalent to more than 1,000 dollars per 1,000 cubic meters, around 50 per cent above the benchmark used to calculate the current tariff.

Moldova has contracted more than 90 per cent of the gas needed for the cold season. However, an important portion of these volumes is indexed to TTF, meaning that the final price will depend on market developments at the time of delivery during the winter months.

“Our risk is no longer simply whether gas is available. It is the price at which we purchase it, how we finance the acquisitions and how we replenish stocks before winter,” the prime minister emphasized.

Risks also remain on the fuel market, amid reduced refining and production capacity in the Middle East and Russia and rising international prices. Moldova already faced this situation in August, when diesel stocks fell below four days of consumption and 109 filling stations reported diesel shortages. Following measures implemented by the authorities, stocks increased to approximately 10 days of consumption, while the number of stations reporting problems fell to eight.

“This shows us two things. First, that the risk is real. Second, that when the state has the necessary tools and intervenes in time, we can stabilize the situation,” Vasile Tofan said.

Another vulnerability is the water deficit in the Dniester River basin. In recent weeks, an average of approximately 22 m³ of water per second has been flowing into the Novodnistrovsk reservoir in Ukraine, while maintaining a discharge flow of at least 60 m³/s is necessary. Under normal conditions, the flow exceeds 100 m³/s. At Costesti, on the Prut River, hydropower production has fallen by approximately 55 per cent because of drought.

Low Danube flows are also reducing energy production in the region. The water deficit and energy security are directly connected: lower water levels limit the amount of energy available in the region, while potential electricity outages could affect the operation of major pumping stations and, consequently, the water supply of the municipalities of Chisinau and Balti.

The situation is compounded by the vulnerability of Ukraine’s energy system, which has been affected by the destruction caused by military attacks carried out by the Russian Federation. In next winter, during peak hours, Moldova will need to import approximately 400–450 MW of electricity, while the guaranteed capacity of the interconnection with Romania is approximately 360 MW. The difference would also be covered by imports from Ukraine and the availability of this capacity could be affected by further destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

The prime minister explained that these risks are interconnected: gas affects district heating and electricity production, water shortages reduce hydropower generation, electricity ensures the operation of water supply systems, the situation in Ukraine affects import possibilities and diesel shortages affect transport, agriculture and logistics.

“The real risk is not that one of these things will go wrong. The risk is that two or more risks will materialize, and we could then find ourselves in a situation where we are unprepared to respond to a truly major crisis,” the prime minister said.

According to Vasile Tofan, the state of alert, which expires on September 25, has so far enabled the daily reporting of stocks and import plans, the securing of storage capacity at the port of Giurgiulesti, the creation of fast lanes for fuel shipments at border crossings and restrictions on electricity exports during peak hours. The government considered continuing this mechanism, but it does not provide all tools necessary to manage scenarios in which several risks materialize simultaneously.

During the state of emergency, depending on how the situation develops, authorities will be able to purchase equipment needed for critical infrastructure through expedited procedures and temporarily simplify procedures for installing storage systems, generators, or other emergency capacity. If necessary, the operating conditions of district heating systems may also be temporarily adapted, and temporary regulatory or fiscal measures may be applied in the event of extreme shocks on the gas or fuel markets. If the hydrological situation worsens, authorities will be able to prioritize drinking water supplies, temporarily restrict non-essential uses and rapidly mobilize pumps, generators and other necessary resources.

“The risks do not expire on September 25. It would be irresponsible to enter winter, see all these risks, and wait for the crisis. Preparing for a crisis does not begin when the lights go out, the pump stops, or diesel disappears from the station. It begins when the crisis has not yet struck with full force—it begins today,” Prime Minister Vasile Tofan said.

The state of emergency will remain in effect for 60 days, as of September 26.